CONTENT PIECES: How to win Eurovision (according to data)

The night of the year where more is more, and surprise costume changes and cheesy ballads are actively encouraged – Liverpool is gearing up to host the world’s most fabulous music competition.

Eurovision has been promoting values of inclusivity and sparking joy (and sometimes controversy) since it began in 1956. But for us at Preply, we love that Eurovision offers viewers around the globe a rare chance to learn about and be exposed to languages and cultures they might not normally hear or encounter.

To get into the mood of this year’s competition, we have not only examined the unique and changing relationship Eurovision has with European languages, but have crunched over 70 years of historic data, to reveal the trends, track how the competition tastes have evolved over time, and even predict who might win this year’s competition.

Want to see if you already know what it takes to win Eurovision? Try out our interactive game (and try it out again when you’ve read this research and been clued in)

Europe is home to 24 official languages (and more than 200 counting the unofficial ones). Eurovision is a great opportunity to hear singers perform in their native language (and in three instances, entirely made up languages!).

But despite the diversity of languages and cultures in Europe, due to its commonality, English songs have dominated the competition and swept up 34 wins in total. In fact, since the native-only language rule was lifted in 1999, only four non-English songs have won. After English, the next most successful languages are French, Dutch, Italian and Hebrew.

But Eurovision wasn’t always so English-biased. In fact, it wasn’t until ABBA’s ‘Waterloo’ in 1974 that any winning entry was performed in a non-native language, and it wasn’t until 1989 when Yugoslavia won with ‘Rock me’ that another non-native song won.

However, with songs performed in 15 different languages at this year’s show, there’s still plenty of diversity to celebrate (and plenty of opportunities to practice your language skills!). For multilingual and musical inspiration check out singer Eline Vera’s impressive rendition of Miley Cyrus’ ‘Flowers’… who with the aid of our tutors, sung in 20 different languages!

Fifteen lucky countries have won more than once. The countries with the most wins under their belt are Ireland (with seven), Sweden (with six), and the Netherlands (with five). On the flip side, if you could win points for effort, then Malta, Cyprus, and Iceland would be the high scorers as all have competed for over thirty years without a single win.

But just because you have a history of winning, doesn’t guarantee your current success. Despite five wins, the UK seems to have lost its groove in recent years. So, for a more in-depth view, we’ve calculated the average ranking position of finalists for an alternative gauge of each nation’s chances.

Over 14,000 km across the globe from Europe, the nation with the best average ranking might shock you. Australia has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest seven times since its debut in 2015 and has made the top ten four times, giving the country an average final position of 6.3. Next, not far behind with an average finishing position of 7.2 is Azerbaijan just clipping Ukraine and Italy who both scored 7.3. Countries most likely to be left disappointed are San Marino (with an average position of 15.3), Slovenia (14), and Finland (13.8)

Despite promoting values of diversity, only six winners have been over 40 (with the oldest winner being 50). The age group most likely to win Eurovision is 25-34 year-olds with a 47% success rate, followed by 18-24-year-olds who have a 35% chance. More specifically, the golden ages are 25 (with six winners of this age) and 20 and 29 (both with five wins).

When it comes to choosing your type of artist, is it better to follow Eurovision’s trend for excess and pack the stage with a huge band, or let the spotlight shine on a single star? The numbers reveal that soloists are most likely to win, chalking up 72% of all wins. Next, bands of four members have enjoyed eight wins and duets have crooned their way to victory five times.

Now you’ve picked your singer, it’s time to pick your winning song. Despite some wildcard exceptions, the type of songs most likely to win are quite predictable: pop, love songs.

Although pop songs are the safest choice, those looking to stand out from the crowd (without breaking the mold) should choose to rock out (look to the iconic win in 2016 of Finnish heavy-metal monsters for inspiration here). The next best genre to opt for or to add elements to your song is electronic music (so get those synths out!).

Other themes to reference that crop up time and time again are dreams, life lessons, and more esoterically, fire. But with songs such as ‘Diggi-Loo Diggi-Ley’ and ‘Ding-a-dong’ capturing the imagination of Eurovision voters, you don’t need to be Shakespeare to write the winning lyrics.

Left in the hands of fate (otherwise known as the contest’s producers) is each nation’s position in the running order. Some numbers are really more lucky than others, with the 17th position being the golden spot. Seven winners performed 17th, the next most lucky positions being 8th and 14th which both have five winners each. The cursed spots? No one has ever won in the 2nd or 16th position.

We don’t yet know the finalists for this year’s Eurovision, or their ranking positions, but we do have enough data to apply the trends and pick the strongest candidates to place your bets on.

On a sad starting note, the last couple of years have been tough on Europe, and this is reflected in the sombre tone of this year’s song entries. Running the lyrics through AI and natural language processing, 22 of the 37 entry songs are marked as sad, angry, or simply negative.

But, by plugging in all the vital information of all the competing songs into our calculator, the nations most likely to be cheered up by a Eurovision win this year are Sweden, Azerbaijan, and Italy. In fact, Sweden’s entrant may seem quite similar, as Loreen won in 2012 with the electronic pop anthem ‘Euphoria’.

Who is most likely to be left disappointed? According to the Eurovision status quo, Croatia, Finland and Slovenia have the lowest chance of winning. But, despite all the data-crunching, these nations shouldn’t lose hope – just consider the rule-breaking wildcard wins of contestants like heavy-metal band Lordi, or a Ukrainian comedian with a star-helmed silver suit, for example..

Eurovision has launched the careers of stars like ABBA and Celine Dion, helped popularise Riverdance, and sparked positive conversations about gender and identity by embracing and platforming stars like Conchita Wurst and Dana International. Whether 2023’s winner is another cheesy love song or an unexpected rocker steals the show, there’s no doubt that this year’s show will be another captivating, delightfully camp, musical spectacle.

Want to get into the spirit of Eurovision? Music is one of the most powerful learning tools there is, and a fun way to practice speaking a language. If there’s a song in one (or more) of the languages you are learning, then why not set yourself the challenge to learn the lyrics. To expand your vocabulary, jot down any words or phrases you don’t know and add them to your vocabulary list in the Preply app. Who knows, you may even be left captivated by the musicality of a totally new language too!