New Friction Between the U.S., Iran, and China Makes Cyber Warf…

CREDIT: AP/GETTY IMAGES

By

Sam Kessler

*Note: The two co-authors also wrote another article piece for

Asian Affairs Magazine

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Geopolitical tensions are increasingly tenuous now between the U.S., Iran, and China as the recent string of naval incidents in the Strait of Hormuz have illustrated the growing complexities in their regional and geopolitical relationships. The

United States and members of the international community

For instance, the U.S. withdrawal of the 2015 Iran Deal (JCPOA) means that it will remain a priority to take any necessary initiatives toward limiting and de-escalating Iran’s missile program and capacity, as well as continuing to counter their regional proxies. However, the absence of diplomatic negotiations between the two nations remains a concern for U.S. policymakers. In fact, newly appointed

U.S. Defense Secretary, Mark Esper, recently stressed the need to go back to the negotiating table with the Iranian government

Secretary of Defense Esper expressed his belief that those nations still believe that Iran’s nuclear path remains a key concern to them as well. However, the U.S. and allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel remain very much involved and committed to tackling what they perceive to be a growing Iranian threat as regional tensions continue to escalate and redefine the geopolitical status. In addition,

Defense Secretary Esper mentioned in his confirmation hearing that

China’s Middle East Relationships

Chinese President Xi Jinping reviews an honor guard as he is welcomed by his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani. AP Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani prepare to shake hands at the conclusion of their joint press conference at the Saadabad Palace in Tehran. SOURCE: AP 2016

Also, the U.S. is dealing with an expanding trade war and great power competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) that has

found its way into the Middle East

In addition, there is an ongoing international investigation that is being conducted by U.S. federal authorities who are charging Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer, Meng Wanzhou, with espionage and violation of sanctions with Iran. Huawei controls Skycom Tech Co Ltd and another shell company called Canicula Holdings Ltd. The importance of this case is that Huawei has been using Skycom Ltd to shield sales of telecommunications equipment to Iran and Syria. The U.S. investigators found documents that link a high-level Huawei executive as being their Iran manager. They also list three additional Chinese-named individuals as having the ability to

sign on behalf of Huawei and Skycom bank accounts within Iran

Moreover, the Chinese have also invested in trading relationships and infrastructure projects that are worth several billions of dollars with neighboring Middle East countries like

Saudi Arabia with a $65 billion bilateral trade deal.

The aftermath of the recent naval incidents in the Strait of Hormuz is significantly crucial to follow as militaries in the region are at heightened alerts while the Chinese and U.S. governments are mixed in their willingness to enter into a major conflict with Iran. After all, it is more in the benefit of the Chinese government to divert the

current U.S. policy of rebalancing its strategic tactical interests away from the Middle East and more towards Southeast Asia.

Stuxnet and Nuclear Enrichment Drama Meets Operation Cleaver

In the meantime, the cyber warfare domain is where a majority of the daily battles between the United States and Iran are being fought. The first major reporting of this began around 2010 when the Iranian government disclosed that the

Stuxnet computer malware virus

Stuxnet occurred at a time when US-Iranian political ties were already pretty stringent. However, the ramifications of Stuxnet on the Iranian government can still be felt in their current-day policies. This caused catastrophic failure and

damage to the centrifuges and Uranium

The Iranian response to Stuxnet was the creation of

“Operation Cleaver”

A Resurgence in Cyberwarfare Focus

With the current U.S administration having revoked its predecessor’s nuclear deal with Tehran (JCPOA), the resurgence of cyber-attacks from both Iran and China have drastically increased. The sophistication of these attacks are not the typical denial-of-service attacks we’ve seen in the past. Instead, these attacks are committed by hackers who are exploiting weaknesses in the internet’s core infrastructure in order to steal the

web traffic that passes between government agencies, banks, and businesses that manage their back-end infrastructure

Back to Business as Usual?

Both sides continue to have strategic interests in this region that are either jeopardized or being put on hold due to geopolitical leveraging tactics. However, as a campaign promise, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that he would not put the U.S. into

another Middle East war

The current Middle East tensions may witness limits being tested but an actual escalation of armed conflict may not become a full reality just yet. This is mainly due to larger nations having greater policy and leverage implementation tools as well as alternative measures of retaliation and influence that have yet to be fully exhausted. Creating greater

maritime security in the form of an international united force

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Sam Kessler

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Dustin Oaks

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