Built a forecasting model to predict the number of insurance claims expected over the next 6 mont...Built a forecasting model to predict the number of insurance claims expected over the next 6 mont...
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Built a forecasting model to predict the number of insurance claims expected over the next 6 months, broken down by business-relevant categories, for a large-scale insurance claims dataset.
The project followed a full 5-stage process: business & data understanding, data assessment & cleaning, data preparation, model development/evaluation/deployment, and implementation & knowledge transfer.
We tested and compared multiple forecasting approaches — Auto ARIMA, Auto ETS, Auto Theta, Prophet, LightGBM, and XGBoost — to select the best-performing model for each claim category.
Results:
Improved MAPE by 47%, from a 6.42% baseline to 3.43% in production
The production model outperformed the baseline on 96% of claim types
Identified and corrected 19+ data quality issues during the cleaning phase
Delivered 48 visualizations giving the client deeper insight into their own claims data
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Creatives on Contra have earned over $150M and we are just getting started