Nelson Ibarra
Trader & quant dev | banking-trained | 10+ years Python
New to Contra
Nelson is ready for their next project!
๐ด ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ โ
They can have the perfect signal. The bot's going to burn anyway โ because signal isn't the bottleneck.
The bottleneck is risk governance.
I built a copytrading bot for Polymarket that follows "smart money" wallets in real time: 3 signal engines running in parallel (Polygon WSS, Polymarket WS Market, Data API polling), dedup by trade_id, execution via CLOB with FAK orders.
The hardest part was NOT getting the signals. It was building the 8 risk layers that decide whether a trade actually gets placed:
๐๐ญ โ ๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฟ-๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ยท Max 2% of wallet capital per trade. Protects against the classic "one bad trade".
๐๐ฎ โ ๐ง๐ผ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ ยท Max 60% of equity open at once. So you're not over-exposed when the market flips.
๐๐ฏ โ ๐ฆ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐น๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ ยท Max 15% of equity in any single market. Against accidental concentration ("the wallet's favorite market").
๐๐ฐ โ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ยท Per-category caps (Crypto, Sports, Politicsโฆ) with per-wallet overrides. Against implicit correlation.
๐๐ฑ โ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ ยท Max 8 open positions per wallet. Against the bot going crazy on an active day and opening 30 trades nobody can track.
๐๐ฒ โ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ ยท Max 4 distinct markets open at once. Against cognitive dispersion.
๐๐ณ โ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐ถ๐ฐ ยท Auto-pause at wallet and portfolio level. Smart wallets ALSO have bad streaks โ copying them means knowing when to cut them off.
๐๐ด โ ๐ฆ๐๐ฏ & ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ณ๐ถ๐น๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ยท Whitelist of subcategories and assets. Against catching the random trades a smart wallet places outside its real edge.
Pre-filters before any of this fires: excluded categories, signal age (don't copy stale trades), slippage control, resize ratio, minimum trade size.
๐ง๐ต๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐น๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด:
โ Every layer is ๐๐ผ๐ด๐ด๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ป/๐ผ๐ณ๐ณ ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ผ๐บ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ต๐ฏ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ. No restart. No redeploy.
โ Config update is ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ผ-๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด: the dashboard writes straight to the in-memory singleton + persists to DB. The bot reads via dict lookup (sub-nanosecond).
โ When panic fires, it's not a kill: marks DB status, cancels pending orders, fires a Telegram alert. Reversible if it was a false alarm.
What I take away after months running it:
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐ถ๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ง ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฎ๐. ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐ถ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐บ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ถ๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐. What separates a bot that survives from one that blows up in its first month is the risk engine.
If you build bots and you only have 1-2 risk layers, add L3, L5 and L7 tomorrow โ those three alone save you from the most common failure modes.
More of what I'm building: niv-labs.dev (http://niv-labs.dev)
DM open.
#AlgorithmicTrading #Polymarket #Quant #RiskManagement #Python
0
37
Full P2P merchant platform for Binance C2C โ multi-account orders, ads, payments control, taker, transfers & admin. Built against 90%+ of the Binance C2C endpoints.
0
43
A real production bot trading Polymarket's Counter Strike 2 (CS2) game markets, fed byย HLTV's live data streamย as its primary source โ tick-by-tick player money, weapons and alive status. It computes a calibrated fair-probability per round and trades the binary game markets in real time.
0
73
Real-time HFT-style terminal: market-maker front-run signals on Polymarket BTC 5-min markets, powered by a low-latency Go engine
0
61
A trade-by-trade backtest report. Win rate, profit factor, expectancy, max drawdown and the equity curve areย recomputed live in your browserย from the trade log below โ and you can drop your own log to analyze it.
0
72