December 12, 2024

In July, Sir Keir Starmer became the UK’s latest prime minister after the Labour Party won in a landslide general election victory. This is a stark difference from the general election results of 2019, where, led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party suffered its ‘worst electoral defeat in almost a century’.

The Conservative Party previously held power in Parliament for the last 14 years, but similarly suffered its worst result in almost 200 years. We can expect to witness an ‘ideological battle’ over the party’s future direction. Kemi Badenoch’s recent appointment as Conservative Party leader is proof of that.

As expected, the Labour Party will face many challenges including making an impact in a nation that is becoming increasingly divided politically, especially after being under Tory reign for so long. In his first speech as Prime Minister, Sir Keir said, “Changing a country is not like flicking a switch. The world is now a more volatile place. This will take a while, but have no doubt the work of change will begin immediately.”

The party’s biggest policy moves include building new prisons, ‘cracking down’ on water bills and helping people back into work.

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Since Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter/X in 2022, X has become a volatile platform with its usage falling by 23%. X, spearheaded by Musk, sought to create a ‘deregulated’ and uncensored user experience, with very limited restrictions on what users can post. Warnings from anti-hate speech campaign groups and the EU about misinformation and extremism on the platform have since driven away many previous users.

For example, it has been reported that political propaganda accounts powered by AI posed as real people on X to argue in favour of Republican candidates and causes, according to a Clemson University research report. Moreover, the platform is now described as a “ghost town of AI bots“.

Millions of accounts on X have been created without human oversight and operate on automated routines to outsmart bot-detection algorithms. The purposes of these bots include spreading misinformation and recruiting followers with hopes of selling the account or using it for another purpose once it ages.

In the second half of the year, we saw a new competitor for X emerge: Bluesky. Bluesky is also a social media platform, with many interface and functional similarities to X. As of November, it has reached more than 15 million users worldwide, gaining 6 million users in two months.

Currently, it is not evident that Musk will attempt to appease disillusioned users with a more regulated interface, especially as he continues to champion free speech and other propaganda on his account, often threatening to penalise accounts that mock him.

In 2024, eight out of the 10 most populous countries went to the polls this year: including India, Germany, Spain, the UK and the US. Ahead of this, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report (2024) identified the emerging challenges around misinformation, turnout (especially amongst the youth demographic) and electoral integrity, regarding this year’s global elections.

As the year has progressed, there has been an array of findings and opinions on the issue of political misinformation. For example, according to research published by The Alan Turing Institute, there is no evidence that AI-enabled misinformation meaningfully impacted recent UK or European election results. Researchers from the Centre for Emerging Technology and Security (CETaS), from the institute, identified 16 confirmed viral cases of AI disinformation or deepfakes during the UK general election and 11 viral cases were identified in the EU and French elections combined.

On the other hand, a Clemson University research report explained that political propaganda accounts powered by AI posed as real people on X to argue in favour of Republican candidates and causes.

Voter turnout amongst young people continued to be one of the lowest among age groups. For example, based on estimations, as of November, 42% of younger voters (aged 18-29) cast ballots in the US presidential election this year. This is a lower youth turnout than in 2020. In the UK, many young people feel misrepresented in UK politics and sceptical about whether voting makes a difference.

Politicians must spend the years to come to focus on many areas such as:

including youth representation, especially in campaigns

fighting for democratic access for marginalised and lower-class groups

raising awareness on misinformation/fake news and how to identify it

As we near the end of the year, inflation rates are currently at 2.3% and are expected to reach 3% in 2025, according to forecasters. At present, the UK holds the highest core inflation rate among the G7 countries, as well as the highest food inflation. Rising food costs has meant that many families can not afford ‘essential household foods’ like vegetables, with many members going for prolonged amounts of time without eating.

One of the reasons food prices are expected to become more volatile is due to the current climate crisis, with its more extreme weather and substantial shifts in seasonal patterns. These can lead to spikes in the price of individual products, with olive oil and cocoa being recent examples, or across-the-board increases, caused by abnormal weather patterns.

As of November, the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showed food price inflation is now a more manageable 1.95% this year, but as of right now, spending a lot more on a weekly grocery shop is still the new normal.

Based on this year’s biggest news stories, there are a few things you can look out for to build your commercial awareness around these areas:

How State leaders are building /maintaining relationships as ‘new’ parties come into power

Possible contingency plans the Labour Party may implement to offset the impacts of food price inflation and other possible disruptions to national food supply/supply chains

The rise of propaganda and misinformation on social media platforms

States increasing regulations for social media platforms in areas of AI, fake news, advertisement, competition law, etc

Trends related to global public/political trust and what States will do to protect democratic integrity