HD45 has 84,037 registered voters, and we estimate 52% (43,780 voters) will turnout in 2026. To win, the campaign needs at least 21,891 votes, and a safe target is 22,985 (50% + 5%). The strategy to reach this number relies on securing a strong share of swing voters through identification and persuasion efforts, followed by a GOTV effort to maximize Republican turnout..

The Republican base in this district consists of 32.66% of the active voters, compared to the 37.33% for the Democrats. Thus, the key to winning in HD45 is the 13,937 active swing voters, who represent 30.0% of the district. To secure a majority, the campaign needs to win 6,715 of these swing voters. This requires a direct voter ID effort, with follow-up persuasion and consistent engagement throughout election day. These voters are the deciding factor and should be the focus of most outreach resources.

Because of the inherent Republican deficit in this race, inactive voters will likely also play a role in any successful campaign. There are 60,329 Republicans who do not regularly vote in Gubernatorial elections, but may have come out in 2024—with the right candidate in place, they could be convinced to turn out by a targeted GOTV effort.

To pull this off, the campaign will need to prioritize outreach in three areas:

1. recruiting hard Republican volunteers 2. persuading swing voters, and 3. reactivating inactive Republicans.

This means knocking on over 22,000 doors, making nearly 18,000 calls, and sending texts to close to 20,000 cell phones, all the while ensuring the field team is focused on the voters most likely to shift the outcome.

Vol Recruit (Hard Reps): 1,039 (781 HHs) ID (Active Swing & Soft Reps): 26,682 (18,195 HHs) GOTV (Inactive Reps): 4,802 (3,930 HHs)

1. Volunteer Recruitment (Hard Reps) Doors: 781 households Phones: 742 landlines Texts: 650 cell phones

2. ID/Persuasion (Active Swing & Soft Reps) Doors: 18,195 households Phones: 14,555 landlines Texts: 16,563 cell phones

3. GOTV (Inactive Reps) Doors: 3,930 households Phones: 2,395 landlines Texts: 2,664 cell phones

Total Doors: 22,906 (Approx. 750 Hours per pass) Total Landlines: 17,692 (Approx. 450 Hours per pass) Total Cells: 19,877 (Approx. $990 per text)