AUKUS is a security cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, established in September 2021. Its prime objective is to enhance cooperation in the areas of technological transmission, defence, and nuclear submarine proficiencies. AUKUS has little direct impact on Pakistani territory, but it has implications for regional stability within the larger context of global power dynamics and geopolitical worries.
From the perspective of naval warfare, AUKUS provides the following challenges and potential threats to regional security:
1. The Indo-Pacific region's power dynamics have drastically shifted as a result of AUKUS. Australia will have access to cutting-edge military hardware through this partnership, including nuclear-powered submarines. This could upset the balance of power in the area and spur retaliation from other countries, leading to an arms race or an increase in hostilities.
2. The AUKUS alliance is viewed as largely being a response to China's growing assertiveness and influence in the region. China, a contender in the region, would see AUKUS as a direct challenge to its geopolitical objectives. Existing tensions between China and other regional powers, such as the United States and its allies, could be exacerbated by this. The enhanced naval might of other nations may result from the AUKUS members' increased military power, heightening tensions and undermining stability.
3. AUKUS includes Australia receiving nuclear-powered submarine technology. Despite the fact that these submarines have conventional weapons, the transfer of this technology may cause worries about nuclear proliferation and jeopardize non-proliferation efforts. This might trigger arms races and exacerbate security issues in the area, especially if other nations feel pressured to create or acquire equivalent capabilities.
4. AUKUS might have unforeseen effects on the regional cooperation systems already in place. For instance, it can have an effect on programs like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which brings together Australia, Japan, the United States, and India. The foundation of AUKUS could complicate the dynamics within the Quad and possibly result in diverging interests and goals, despite the fact that the Quad is intended to promote peace and security in the region.
The effects of AUKUS in the particular setting of Pakistan would depend on how it interacts with the larger regional dynamics. Pakistan has long-standing worries about its security in the Arabian and Indian Oceans. AUKUS may have an effect on Pakistan's naval strategy and force posture if it results in a militarization of the area or sparks an arms race. In addition, Pakistan and India have complicated relations, and any changes to the regional balance of power could have an impact on other aspects of regional security, such as naval warfare considerations.
The precise effects of AUKUS on regional stability are still being determined, and their long-term effects will depend on how different regional nations and stakeholder groups react to this development.