🏆 I built a live

🏆 I built a live AI-powered match predictor for the 2026 FIFA World Cup — and it updates itself every hour, automatically. 48 teams. 104 matches. The biggest sporting event on the planet. So I asked myself: can machine learning predict what no one can? 🤖 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗠𝗢𝗗𝗘𝗟 Not just another ELO-based predictor. This one combines: ⚡ Live ELO ratings — recalculated after every WC match 📈 Recent form — last 5 & 10 official matches ⚔️ Head-to-head history — including World Cup-only records 👥 Squad strength — EA FC 26 player ratings 💰 Market value — Transfermarkt squad valuations 🎯 Penalty shootout win rate — the "clutch factor" most models ignore 🔥 Knockout pressure — encoded as a binary feature ⚠️ Upset detection — flags weaker teams in better form Dual-model ensemble: XGBoost + Poisson Regression 22 engineered features across 9 categories Trained on 49,477 international matches (1872–2026) 🔧 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗟 𝗘𝗡𝗚𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗟𝗟𝗘𝗡𝗚𝗘 Building the model wasn't the hard part — keeping it LIVE was. Results change daily, teams get eliminated mid-tournament, and shootouts aren't always recorded immediately. The solution: an update engine that runs every hour — fetching results, detecting eliminated teams, recalculating ELO, and handling shootouts with smart fallback logic. Fully automated. 📊 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗕𝗜𝗚𝗚𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗜 𝗟𝗘𝗔𝗥𝗡𝗘𝗗 Early versions suffered from "ELO Dominance" — assuming the stronger team almost always wins. Statistically wrong. The fix: convert raw ELO difference into a calibrated win probability using the standard logistic formula. Now a +300 ELO advantage means ~88% win probability, not 100%. Because football is unpredictable. That's what makes it beautiful. 🖥️ 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗗𝗔𝗦𝗛𝗕𝗢𝗔𝗥𝗗 A 6-page Streamlit app featuring: 🔮 Match prediction — Win/Draw/Loss probabilities 🔵 Group stage simulation — Monte Carlo standings 🏆 Championship probability per team 📄 Downloadable PDF report 🌙 Dark/Light mode 🇸🇦 Arabic / 🇬🇧 English support 🎬 Full walkthrough in the video below 👇 🔴 Live App → https://lnkd.in/e8BuSUh7 🐙 GitHub → https://lnkd.in/ej8w_cUq ⚠️ Built for educational & portfolio purposes. Predictions are probabilistic — not guarantees 😄 What feature would YOU add to improve upset prediction? Drop it below 👇 #MachineLearning #DataScience #Streamlit #SportsAnalytics #FIFA2026