Kirk Cousins Emerges As a Key Figure in the 2024 NFL Free Agenc…

The Minnesota quarterback’s sweepstakes win might have an impact on the whole league. Additionally, Chris Jones’ self-bet, his potential to become the highest-paid non-quarterback, and other details.

The straw that stirs the brew for this crop of free agents is Kirk Cousins. An intriguing development for the 35-year-old, four-time Pro Bowler is that the coordinators of the Los Angeles Rams, who won the Super Bowl in 2021, are in charge of the two teams that are expected to be the main contenders in his sweepstakes.

The offensive coordinator for Sean McVay that season and Kirk Cousins‘ play caller for the previous two seasons, Kevin O’Connell of the Minnesota Vikings, are in one corner. On the other is Atlanta Falcons coach Raheem Morris, a former defensive coordinator who also spent Cousins’ first three NFL seasons in Washington. And the most important thing to remember from that Rams championship season is probably to never be scared to take a strong swing at a quarterback.

The fact that Minnesota stands to lose Kirk Cousins in the next several hours indicates that the Vikings have placed limitations on it. As much as Minnesota loves Cousins, the team told the quarterback’s camp a year ago that it wouldn’t be doing a third deal that was (basically, in the case of the second deal) fully guaranteed over three years because it wasn’t willing to guarantee money more than two years out—which meant, at the time, past 2024.

Cousins played in only eight games in 2023 after injuring his Achilles.

Having said that, I have a strong feeling that O’Connell wants to hold onto Kirk Cousins for as long as possible. When a quarterback has coordinator-level control at the line of scrimmage, the coach’s offense performs at its peak; O’Connell’s season with Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles amply demonstrated this. To me, the fact that Cousins is about to enter the market indicates that O’Connell and the quarterback will have a significant influence when the choice is made.

Regarding the Falcons, they are the team that is anticipated to pursue outside experienced quarterback alternatives with the most vigor. With Baker Mayfield out of the picture, I’d anticipate a fierce run at Cousins. They have room to work and a desirable setting in which to entice Cousins. And if they fail there, I believe they would consider trading Justin Fields to Chicago.

Considering that a club can only really demonstrate to Kirk Cousins that he will be the starting quarterback for a longer period than a bridge year or two, I would estimate that all of this puts him in the $40 million per year bracket. The guarantee structure plays a significant role in this.

The interesting thing about the Vikings’ scenario is that a couple of additional decisions might be made based on what happens to Cousins. Danielle Hunter, who enters his tenth NFL season at the age of 29, is one of Minnesota’s finest players and one of the top players available as free agency. Additionally, the Vikings are thought to be a possible contender in the deal for L’Jarius Sneed. Taking the win-now position would entail being the aggressor on both fronts.

Yes, if Kirk Cousins makes a comeback. They managed to survive the 2023 cap reset year and, despite Cousins’ absence, managed to remain in the postseason chase into Christmas. They have some strong foundational pieces in Jordan Addison, Christian Darrisaw, and Justin Jefferson. With that core and a few successful free-agent and draft selections, you can create an NFC contender with quarterback play ranked in the top ten.

The Minnesota Vikings may go forward if the quarterback situation improves. The team has already contacted the Kansas City Chiefs about Sneed. Additionally, Hunter would find the prospect of going back more alluring in that situation, at least on paper.

It’s not as attractive as the alternative. Assume, for instance, that Kirk Cousins leaves for Atlanta and Sam Darnold ends up joining the Vikings. While Darnold maybe this year’s Mayfield (the 2018 No. 3 selection did appear superior in brief action with the San Francisco 49ers last year), it is more difficult to defend becoming Daddy Warbucks on the free-agent trial if that is the plan.

Furthermore, the Vikings would probably want to hang onto the draft capital needed to wrest the franchise quarterback Sneed away from the Chiefs, as a trade-up from No. 11 for a quarterback would appear to be on the cards in that scenario.

Thus, the next several days in Minnesota should be intriguing.

Russell Wilson’s acquisition by the Steelers represents, in many ways, the requirements of both a franchise and a player coming together to make a match. I don’t think Pittsburgh would have done this two years ago, and it also wouldn’t have worked if the Steelers had been planning to draft a quarterback this year and had been selected in the top three.

This is because Wilson must project a lot to feel at ease in a position group with a highly valued youngster.

However, the Steelers are not located there. Kenny Pickett is no longer a rookie. After a decent rookie season, he had a dismal sophomore year, outperforming him and providing Pittsburgh with a boost in the closing minutes. Mason Rudolph, in case you forgot, was still a member of the club. Therefore, Pickett is no longer receiving child gloves—for good.

Therefore, it is the ideal moment to create a rivalry in that space rather than a caring one. Additionally, Wilson’s addition to the team adds a player with Super Bowl credentials. He’s not coming to train Pickett. He’s heading there to try to earn the position, which should expedite the Steelers’ decision on their first-round pick in 2022.

Wilson’s perspective is that this may perhaps be his final opportunity. The 35-year-old has an opportunity to demonstrate that he has matured from his Denver experience—where he was first treated like royalty before Sean Payton knocked him down a peg or two (or ten)—and that he is prepared to, well, be a regular guy by moving to a place where he won’t be enabled or treated like the franchise. It may be simpler stated than done.

In the end, Wilson’s career will either be ended or rejuvenated, and the Steelers will receive an answer about Pickett, and the rest of us will receive an answer regarding Wilson.

It should be entertaining to watch.

The Chiefs treated Chris Jones fairly. It’s also important to remember that Jones continuously gambled on himself to get the Chiefs to that point.

You had to go back to last summer to get it. Rather than play out the last year of his four-year, $80 million contract that he signed in 2020, Jones carried over his holdout into the season. Given that Jones continued to play at an All-Pro caliber, the contract had obviously beyond its expiration date. Jones responded by accepting a 2023 incentive sweetener and assuming that everything would be worked out after the season.

This past season, Jones’s incentive package included the following: • A one-million dollar bonus for contributing to 35% and 50% of the Chiefs’ defensive snap totals, respectively.

• Maintaining a $1.25 million incentive for 10 sacks and increasing the amount to $1.75 million if he achieved 15 sacks.

• A further $2 million if he was voted Defensive Player of the Year and the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, in addition to $1 million if he made first-team All-Pro and the Chiefs advanced to the championship game.

Jones received $4.25 million in incentives, $3 million of which were not included in his previous contract, after hitting all bar the 15-sack and DPOY title targets. That helped him avoid paying the $2.1 million in fines he was assessed for skipping camp, and it also paved the way for the negotiations that have been going on for the past month.

Here, Jones and his representatives, the Katz brothers, made the correct decision by taking a chance that the All-Pro would, well, be his All-Pro self in 2023. I was skeptical of this situation throughout the summer of the approach. That set them up for success when a $32.16 million tag number appeared a few months later. They were correct, too.

The five-year contract that Jones inked on Saturday night brought him $95 million over the first three years, with the first two years completely guaranteed and his money for 2026 vesting as fully guaranteed on March 25. In addition to the early vesting third-year guarantee that Donald’s agreement lacked, that puts Jones in line with Aaron Donald for the first three years of the Rams’ potential Hall of Famer’s contract, which was signed two years ago.

What about the Chiefs’ end of the story? With four months left before his 30th birthday, this guy is still performing at a very high level and is being recognized as one of the greatest in franchise history. He is a member of the Kansas City dynasty’s holy trinity, along with Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. This only covers the cost of the freight.

One may argue that they ought to have taken action a year ago. But for now, this is their situation.

Since some of the roster’s rising stars—Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis, and Nick Bolton—will soon be at the negotiating table, Kansas City can now move forward with some financial security for its biggest stars. Sneed is still available.

It will be intriguing to watch what happens with this year’s crop of free-agent linebackers, while we’re talking about Bolton. The MMQB lead discusses the running back dilemma and this year’s linebackers are in a similar predicament. The leaders of the defense take a financial blow with the players who run the ball since the league is increasingly focusing on investments at premium positions (quarterback, receiver, tackle, pass rusher, corner), and we’ll work it out for the other positions.

Even more captivating? The best clubs in the NFL have plenty of linebackers on their rosters. The Chiefs added a free agent to their rotation at the position and had three rookie agreements involving choices in the top 100. Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner were developed, selected, and paid for by the 49ers. In the first round, the Baltimore Ravens selected Patrick Queen and then traded for and paid Roquan Smith. Jack Campbell was recently acquired by the Detroit Lions with a first-round selection.

But the market is shifting away from these companies. Queen’s case could be an intriguing litmus test for the financial stability of NFL linebackers in the coming days.

After Smith joined the team in the middle of the 2022 season, Queen’s play took off in Baltimore. Smith replaced the green dot, which made him the defensive signal-caller, and let the incredibly agile former LSU standout just rush to the ball and play. The outcomes that transpired were indisputable. Therefore, even while there is that warning—that perhaps you don’t want to burden the Queen’s position with the obligations Smith assumed—there is also a major problem here.

Even still, the majority of the estimates I’ve read put Queen’s yearly salary in the $12 million region, which is far less than what the best players in his position make. That would likely be confirmation that his positional worth would hamper his chances of making a lot of money after four NFL seasons.

In a similar vein, Drue Tranquill re-upped this week for just $19 million over three years, completely guaranteed at $12.5 million. Tranquill may have received somewhat greater money elsewhere—possibly closer to $8 million annually. Even yet, it falls well short of the top end of the off-ball linebacker market, even for a very talented guy who was an essential part of a Super Bowl-winning defense.

Does the Queen receive compensation then? What about Frankie Luvu, Jordyn Brooks, or Azeez Al-Shaair? If they don’t, it would be significant in a year when the draft appears to have few alternatives.

This past season, Queen was chosen for the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career.

The safety alternatives are stacked while we’re there, but we may run into a similar issue. This week, the Seahawks released injured standout Jamal Adams, while the Denver Broncos let loose Justin Simmons. They join a group that includes many well-known players: Kyle Dugger of the New England Patriots, Kamren Curl of the Washington Commanders, and Xavier McKinney of the New York Giants.

Derwin James reset the safety market less than two years ago when he signed a four-year, $76.5 million contract deal with the Chargers.

Although Jessie Bates III had a very good contract ($64 million over four years) to leave the Cincinnati Bengals last season, it was far less than James’s salary. Star player for the Arizona Cardinals Budda Baker requested a move and then scrutinized for a rise. Harrison Smith of Minnesota got a wage reduction. There hasn’t been any movement on the market other than that.

This appears to be another free agency area where the general football-watching audience should have some understanding of the league’s current state. Antoine Winfield Jr. was franchised by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for $17.123 million, and I predict that the team will work out a deal with its premier player between now and July. Dugger was tagged by New England Transition for $13.815 million, and the Patriots and Dugger will likely come to an arrangement as well.

Following that? I’m particularly curious about Curl’s and McKinney’s outcomes. In 2020, McKinney was highly regarded by several clubs in April after receiving the endorsement of Nick Saban from Alabama. Although he hasn’t been a particularly strong player in New York, a team may reconsider its draft pick assessment and give him a high pick. Following the combination, I conducted some follow-up research on free agents, and one name that kept coming up as a guy who may receive more than people realize is Curl.

The two athletes are still 24 years old. They are both going up. These are both skillful, adaptable players—the kinds who usually earn salaries at this time of year.

As we mentioned with the linebackers, how these two perform will reveal a lot.

Regarding which players will receive compensation, I would direct your attention to the offensive line. And in terms of the franchise tag, this has everything to do with NFL economics.

For offensive linemen, there is just one blanket number, therefore tagging a guard or a center will effectively result in a tag at the tackle number. From there, the outcome resembles what you would see if the NFL opted to combine tight ends and receivers or safeties and corners. It is similar to what has happened to clubs’ ability to franchise off-ball linebackers because of the influx of edge rushers who are mistakenly labeled as linebackers.

To put it simply, teams don’t tag guards or centers since they often don’t have the same value as tackles, which forces them to be dumped into the market. Together with the fact that there aren’t enough offensive linemen to go around, large guys ought to benefit greatly.

Returning to the original topic of whether players could be paid more than people realize, many of the comments I’ve seen have focused on those inside-line positions. Robert Hunt of the Miami Dolphins, Jonah Jackson of Detroit, and Lloyd Cushenberry of Denver were the guards and center, respectively. Others who might profit from the increasing tide include Tyler Biadasz of Dallas and Mike Onwenu of New England, who can also play right tackle.

Citing Ben Powers’s four-year, $51.5 million contract in Denver, an NFC executive argues, “If Ben Powers got $13 million last year, a lot of guys should get more than that this year.”

Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins is the highest-paid non-quarterback I’ve ever seen. According to rumors, Miami’s big man may easily surpass the $20 million annual salary threshold and reach up to $25 million. His ability to be a disruptive, pass-rushing force from the inside is a trait that is getting harder and harder to come by. That, in my opinion, raised the most important query you ought to pose to any free agent:

Miami has been Wilkins’ home field for each of his five NFL seasons.

The first justification is clear-cut. With the second-least amount of breathing room in the NFL, the Dolphins’ cap position isn’t terrific. Vets will need to be let go (Xavien Howard is already leaving), and adding a $22.1 million lump fee to the Wilkins franchise agreement would have muddled matters further. particularly in light of the likelihood that Miami will sign Tua Tagovailoa to a long-term contract this summer.

What is your opinion of Wilkins, the second question? Before 2023, he had never had five sacks in a season. That year, he recorded a career-high nine sacks. Being tiny for the position causes him to be displaced in the run game, and he had a tough time against the physically strong Chiefs line in Miami’s playoff loss. This year, he turns 29 as well.

Therefore, Wilkins is an extremely talented player. As previously mentioned, arguably the greatest non-quarterback available. Do you pay him like those players, though, if he isn’t a dominant force in the run game—or even a rusher like Justin Madubuike, Jones, or Donald? Or does it imply that, at 28, Wilkins is what he is as a football player and that you have to compensate for his few shortcomings to get the best out of him?

In any case, Wilkins seems like a wonderful addition to the appropriate club, the Houston Texans or Cleveland Browns, who I’ve heard are ready to spend on the position, maybe one such team. But once more, I believe that fit will be crucial. I assume that the funds will be available.

The Los Angeles Chargers are the only club with a worse salary cap position than the Dolphins. Additionally, they are willing to consider all of their possibilities to escape their financial prison. Jim Harbaugh, the new coach, and general manager Joe Hortiz arrived in Los Angeles with a roster and quarterback that appeared to be competitive candidates for the Super Bowl. However, that advantage comes with the previously noted disclaimer that things need to be ironed out financially.

To acquire elite edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack as well as reliable receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers have initiated trade talks with other clubs throughout the last week. Two of those players—Allen and Mack—are beyond thirty. The other two have a long history of injuries and are almost reaching that milestone. All four share a cap amount above $30 million for the year 2024.

Bosa, Williams, Allen, and Mack are all valued at $36.5 million, $34.7 million, $34.7 million, and $32.5 million, respectively. These 2023 cap figures—$6.6 million, $15.8 million, $12.8 million, and $13.5 million, respectively—show how much the team invested in this area in ’23. It also illustrates, in many respects, the price of spending an additional year with employees who are aware that their careers are at risk.

The $142.3 million total cost, if the Chargers were to retain those four, would represent 56% of their salary cap. Hence, something has to give, of course. Furthermore, I don’t believe it indicates that the four players will go. However, if they were all back, I would be shocked. I believe it would take a major event for another team to get close to Allen.

The remaining players are likely available at a fair price for clubs who are unwilling to wait for Harbaugh and Hortiz to make cuts.

Even if Mack is older and Bosa is more expensive, it would be easy to compare their availability to the estimated salaries of the free-agent edge rushers. If Hunter doesn’t reach $20 million per, I’d anticipate he’ll get close to it. Jonathan Greenard of Houston has a chance to reach that mark as well, and after everything is said and done, I believe Bryce Huff of the New York Jets, who is a dynamic player, won’t be far off.

Despite recording 17 sacks in 2018, Mack, 33, is nearing the end of his career. Bosa, who is 28 years old, has a history of injuries, but he has also recorded double-digit sacks in each of the four seasons in which he has started 11 or more games. The former has a final-year deal that he is due $23.25 million from. The latter is owed $25.36 million the next year, with $22 million due the current year. As their team’s starting pass rusher in the past, both have shown to be monsters.

Although Hunter is a year older than Bosa, he has also. Furthermore, Greenard and Huff had successful careers leading offensive units designed to neutralize their elite colleagues.

Therefore, accepting either Mack or Bosa’s contracts would be costly, but you would also be getting a guy who has demonstrated his ability to succeed in the passing game regardless of his surroundings and you wouldn’t be guaranteed anything over several years.

Now, Greenard and Huff make more sense if I’m a young team forming. However, Bosa or Mack (as well as Hunter) would be a better option if I’m about to make a move.

To finish out our pre-free agency episode, I have your fast hits. Let’s move forward. • It makes sense for both parties for Mayfield to sign the agreement in Tampa. Mayfield will, at most, receive $40 million in 2024, and it would take a lot for him to miss out on $60 million in the following two years. (If the Bucs walk out after this season, they would have to pay $10 million to have the remaining $20 million disappear.) If Mayfield survives ’25, the Bucs will have to decide whether to spend $40 million on a player who will turn 31 in March. Thus, perhaps the Bucs have found their franchise quarterback. This gives them time to locate one, even if they don’t.

In 2023, Mayfield will make his way back to Tampa Bay following a successful comeback season.

• The Bucs did not keep Mayfield from reaching the market as their top pick. Mike Evans signed a two-year contract worth $41 million, which is a terrific deal but not quite what was first reported. He is owed $23 million this year, $18 million the following year, and $6 million guaranteed at signing for his 2025 money, with the remaining $6 million vesting in March of 2025. Accordingly, the Bucs will pay $29 million for a year and $41 million for two, and at the start of the next offseason, they will have to decide whether to sign Evans for ’25.

• Following the combine, the Patriots informed Mac Jones of their plan to trade him and even inquired about his preferences as a quarterback. Following that, and after scouting him all week, the Jacksonville Jaguars emerged as a potential bidder for New England. The Patriots, with a sixth-round selection in their possession, explored for a fifth pick on Saturday before settling on sending Jones back to his birthplace in exchange for the 192nd pick. Naturally, the return isn’t very good for a player selected fifty-three years prior. However, it reflects the idea that Jones doesn’t seem to have much physical upside.

• The two teams’ interpretations of the transaction disagree. The Patriots believed that a fresh start would be best for all parties since, with Jerod Mayo still getting his start, Jones would have had to carry the weight of the previous two seasons into 2024 (things became bad in the QB room). Jones provides Jacksonville with a layer of reasonably priced depth and might be a trade asset if quarterback injuries occur this summer and autumn like they did the previous season.

• The dismissal of Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Mitch Morse as a result of the Buffalo Bills’ cap purge does mark the end of an era. Just after Sean McDermott came to Buffalo in 2017, Poyer and Micah Hyde, a pending free agent, signed on as a tandem; White was the new regime’s first draft selection; and Morse signed as a high-profile free agency in 2019. As the roster matures, now is as good a moment as any to make the reset. In all likelihood, this will happen eventually. It will make the draft crucial this year—the Bills have 11 picks—and most likely necessitate using younger players in pivotal positions by 2024.

• A few free agents are recovering from injuries; D.J. Reader, a defensive tackle with the Bengals, tore his quad in December and entered the market just months before turning 30. According to those who have informed me, Reader should be cleared to start training camp and be ready for the season’s opener. However, it appears that whoever contracts him will likely take it slow with him throughout the summer.

• Why The Browns’ acquisition of Jerry Jeudy was a logical move. He has, indeed, underachieved. However, he’s headed to a location where he’ll play with Amari Cooper, a guy Jeudy has long emulated and who is both from South Florida and a former member of the Alabama football team. When you consider that Jeudy is in a contract year and has a big-brother relationship, it’s clear that Cleveland wants to get the most out of the receiver. (As Jeudy, Cooper, and Elijah Moore were all acquired through trades, the move also highlights general manager Andrew Berry’s inventiveness in creating his receiving room using mid-to-late-round draft money.)

• Trade timing is important. Before the draft a year ago, the Broncos insisted on receiving a first-round pick for Jeudy and a second-round pick for Courtland Sutton. Denver missed the mark, neither player was traded before the trade deadline, and their combined worth has plummeted ever since. Jeudy’s decision to choose fifth- and sixth-round choices is indicative of his poor performance in the previous season and the fact that he only has one year remaining on his contract. Should he have a successful season, Cleveland will have to pay to retain him.

•Thus, I believe the Carolina Panthers will have to accept far less for Brian Burns than what the Rams gave them in 2022 (a third-round pick in 2023, along with first-round picks in 2024 and 2025). I’m not sure how much more it will be—if it is—than the second-round pick that the Chiefs will most likely receive in exchange for Sneed.

• There are several talented defensive tackles available on the market who might be important contributors to some very successful teams. Grover Stewart of the Indianapolis Colts, DaQuan Jones of Buffalo, and Shelby Harris of Cleveland are among them.