Preventing Costly Overstock: Data Governance in Demand ForecastingPreventing Costly Overstock: Data Governance in Demand Forecasting
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A $2M Overstock That Started With a Forecasting Tool Doing Its Job Correctly
A demand planning tool recommended 44,000 units on a SKU. Actual need was under 6,000.
The tool wasn't broken. It was doing exactly what it was built to do, project forward off transaction history. The problem was upstream: pre-order transactions were feeding into that history as if they were confirmed demand, and nobody had gone back to check that assumption since onboarding, months earlier.
Software doesn't know the difference between a pre-order and a sale unless someone tells it. Nobody had. The result was a single buy that put roughly $2M into overstock on one SKU.
This gets filed under "forecasting problem" a lot. I'd call it a data governance problem. The software ran a clean calculation on dirty inputs, and the only fix is someone who understands the business well enough to sit inside the configuration before the number becomes a purchase order.
This is the layer I work in with 7-8 figure Shopify DTC brands not building another forecasting tool, but making sure the assumptions feeding it are actually true before they turn into inventory sitting in a warehouse.
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