Brent Crude Oil Structural Changes Analysis Using Bayesian MethodsBrent Crude Oil Structural Changes Analysis Using Bayesian Methods
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This project analyzes Brent crude oil prices (1987–2022) to detect major structural changes using Bayesian change point analysis. Using Python and PyMC, I built a probabilistic model to identify when significant shifts occurred and measure their impact. The analysis revealed a major market shift around February 2005, when oil prices moved into a higher long-term regime. These insights help investors, policymakers, and energy companies better understand market volatility and make more informed decisions.
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