Is AI really a Fourth Industrial Revolution—or the next layer of computerization?

I have started a long-form research series on how AI may reshape work, ownership, institutions, and human autonomy over the next 10–20 years.

The first article compares four technological revolutions through one practical lens: who captures the productivity gain, and who pays the transition cost?

Three lessons stand out:

1. A new machine does not transform an economy by itself. Steam, electricity, and computers delivered their full impact only after organizations, infrastructure, skills, and regulation changed around them.

2. Productivity and shared prosperity are not the same outcome. Ownership, bargaining power, competition, and public institutions determine how the gain is distributed.

3. AI is a credible candidate for general-purpose technology, but the case is not settled. Adoption is broad, while dependable autonomy and economy-wide productivity effects remain uncertain.

My working conclusion is provisional: we are not living through a completed Fourth Industrial Revolution. We are watching a contest over whether AI will become one—and who will control the models, data centers, chips, energy, and decision systems behind it.

Read the full article on LinkedIn:

Which part of your work has AI genuinely transformed—not just accelerated?

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