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Summary

Economic patterns from 1970, 2001, and potentially 2024 show similarities:
- **Unemployment Rate:** Spiked in 1970 due to the oil crisis, rose in 2001 post-dot-com bubble, and may increase in 2024 if a recession occurs.
- **Stock Market:** Fell sharply in 1970 and 2001; 2024 shows high volatility and potential for decline with persistent inflation and tight policies.
- **Federal Funds Rate:** Raised in 1970, cut in 2001, and aggressively increased since 2022, with possible cuts ahead.
- **Inflation Rate:** High in 1970s, stable in 2001, and rising since 2021, potentially leading to a recession.
- **Yield Curve:** Historical patterns show sharp rises followed by declines, indicating possible recession.
These trends suggest 2024 might follow similar paths to previous recessions.

What's included

  • Resesi Economy: US conditions in 2024 are starting to resemble the recession years of 1970 and 2001

    In the 1970s, high inflation due to the oil shock led the Fed to raise rates aggressively, causing a recession. In 2001, low inflation accompanied the dot-com bubble burst, leading to a tech sector downturn. In 2024, high inflation driven by global uncertainties and supply chain issues has prompted the Fed to raise rates, raising recession concerns. Similarities include high inflation, tight monetary policies, geopolitical tensions, and asset bubbles. Each period faced economic downturns, rising unemployment, and market volatility due to these factors.

Duration

1 day

Skills and tools

Financial Analyst
Canva
Microsoft Word
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Industries

Finance

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News Outlook 05 August - 09 August 2024

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